Thursday, October 8, 2009

3WOOD: Market Update


Destruction of Dollar Pushes Stocks Up

The recent surge in the stock market is due to the ever continuing decline of the dollar thanks to our fiscal and monetary policy. There is no real good news in the economy right now to base the increase in the market on. At Marketwatch you find this:

U.S. stock market steps higher on diminished dollar; Australian rate hike comes in contrast to U.S. central bank stance

In particular, dollar-based commodity stocks including energy, basic materials, mining and multinationals all are benefiting from the greenback's decline.
And as the dollar rebounds, or declines further, U.S. stocks likely will be sensitive to those moves, market professionals say.
"Investors appear anxious to move funds to hard commodities and commodity-based equities as a hedge against the falling dollar," Fred Dickson, chief market strategist at Davidson Cos., wrote in a note.


You see, investors are moving their money into stocks that wil rise with the coming high inflation that just has to happen.

On Wall Street, energy and material shares fronted a second day of gains, with gold hitting a new high and crude up to nearly $71 a barrel. Read Metals Stocks and Futures Movers.
With gold on Tuesday closing at just under $1,040 an ounce, a growing list of gold exchange-traded funds are an increasing draw for cash. See ETF Investing.
The weak dollar "gives a boost to the earnings line but we're much more interested in seeing top-line growth, whether it comes from overseas or not," said Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates. "The dollar certainly helps, but we see it only as a temporary boost."


As I have been saying for a while, get ready for double digit unemployment and inflation to boot. Only a fool would look at the recent jump in the market and conclude that it is due to the economy "turning around". It is based on the dropping dollar, not GDP growth or employment increases. Between the expansionary monetary policy and the spend-spend-spend fiscal policy mindset in Washington, we are in for a truly rough time of it for the foreseeable future.

How is that hope and change working for you?

110 comments:

  1. I hope I have some change left over.....

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  2. The way I understand it, the huge influx of "new money" into the system (stimuli packages)makes inflation almost a guaranteed by-product ... too many $ representing the value of the economy makes the $ worth less.

    Do I have that right?

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  3. Is gold still a good investment? It seems rather short term- get in and then get out rather than a long term investment. If you bought a few years ago, good for you, though.

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  4. I HOPE Obama CHANGEs...but I am not going to expect it.

    If things stay the way they are, Obama will go down as #1 in the History Books. The #1 Worst President....Jimmah must be jealous, as he has held that title for years.

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  5. New thread -- I thought I'd killed the last one.

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  6. I note also the runup in gold, which appears to be due to investors being nervous about investing in ANY convertible currency, since they are all being debased by "stimulus".

    (Which is not to say that gold isn't highly risky, too.)

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  7. OLT - That's the theory, and probably a correct one. We could have a situation where the deflation caused by a decline in economic activity at least partially offsets the inflationary effects of the increase in the money supply, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

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  8. Lucius

    Excellent post. I suggest everyone go back and read it!

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  9. I think most would say that the absolute worst president was James Buchanan, who sat on his butt and let the country drift into Civil War.

    Obama still have a chance to outdo Carter and Buchanan both if he can let some kind of horrible wars at home and abroad break out.

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  10. JCM -- it's the sort of thing I always am nervous to write about -- It is an issue I have studied and thought about a great deal, but it is nigh impossible to get anyone to discuss it without lapsing into the realm of pure emotion.

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  11. This is part of the reason for me getting out of NY... Taxes and a coming economic disaster... New York City has, to a degree, escaped things as bad as other parts of the country... But I see as things get worse and worse, there are going to be large issues with Commercial Real Estate here and taxes are going to have to go up to make up for losses of tax revenue for people like me who are ditching...

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  12. Inflationary idiocy.

    "Wow -- look at all these 100,000,000,000 Mark bank notes in my wallet! I'm rich! I'm rich!"

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  13. Lucius Septimius said...

    I think most would say that the absolute worst president was James Buchanan, who sat on his butt and let the country drift into Civil War.

    Obama still have a chance to outdo Carter and Buchanan both if he can let some kind of horrible wars at home and abroad break out.


    With Obama's projection of weakness abroad and his idiotic spending,taxation and social engineering policies at home, he is trying his hardest to make to the top of the list. I know it's only been 9 months, but if this is any kind of indicator, we are in for a very, very long 4 years with this man at the helm.

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  14. Desert Dog...

    Jimmy wants to stay #1... This is why he loves talking abotu how eeevil the Israelis are...

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  15. Hey Buddy, can you break a billion dollar bill? I need change for the soda machine

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  16. IMHO it would be hard to knock Dhimmi Carter out of first.

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  17. Lucius Septimius said...

    That's what the left does, emotionalize. Make the discussion an "attack," same thing with abortion, discussing it is an attack on the women.

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  18. Gold - anyone buying now may be getting in at the top of the market - or maybe not. No way to know for sure.

    There are other resources where you can buy stocks that own or produce those resources: oil, land, timber, minerals other than gold, or companies that mine gold. Gold doesn't pay you a income via dividends - companies (usually) do. Or, as 3 wood said in the post, buy EFT's that invest in gold. Don't buy your gold from G. Gordon Liddy.

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  19. Son of the Black Dog

    Or even from Captain Kragen from Law and Order:SVU, no matter how much you trust him!

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  20. "Theodore Dalrymple" (nom de plume) does not pretend to be an economist, but he published an interesting piece at "City Journal" titled "Inflation's Moral Hazard":

    http://www.city-journal.org/2009/19_3_otbie-inflation.html

    Pull quote:

    But asset inflation—ultimately, the debasement of the currency—as the principal source of wealth corrodes the character of people. It not only undermines the traditional bourgeois virtues but makes them ridiculous and even reverses them. Prudence becomes imprudence, thrift becomes improvidence, sobriety becomes mean-spiritedness, modesty becomes lack of ambition, self-control becomes betrayal of the inner self, patience becomes lack of foresight, steadiness becomes inflexibility: all that was wisdom becomes foolishness. And circumstances force almost everyone to join in the dance.

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  21. Just on Rush:
    Near riots in Cobo Hall Detroit as people wait for their 'free' Obama money.

    http://www.detnews.com/article/20091007/METRO01/910070396/1409/Thousands-of-Detroit-residents-seek-federal-help-at-Cobo

    Unreal.

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  22. Okay, so how do I post a link. That one was a FAIL.

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  23. True, tfc3rid...

    Jimmah has added to his "mystique" as well since he has left office. He comes back every once in a while and reminds us all what a total f*ckhead he really was and still is.

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  24. Very sad that people are rioting for 'free' money from Dear Leader...

    Same thing happene here in NYC when Soros gave out free money to people on welfare and Food Stamps a few months ago...

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  25. Hey Buddy, can you break a billion dollar bill?

    I think I still have, somewhere, a one million "Inti" note from a visit to Peru in 1991.

    When I first visited that country in June of 1987, the "Inti" traded to the US dollar at about 3:1. By 1991, it had reached a nominal value of about 800,000 per US$1.

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  26. Desert Dog...

    Damn straight... He keeps proving month in and month out how truly useless for America he is and was...

    But he's a great propagandist for the terrorists...

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  27. BTW< heard Nancy Pelosi sending the SBO a health plan with public option and a windfall profits tax in Insurance Companies.

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  28. VioletTiger said...

    Okay, so how do I post a link. That one was a FAIL.

    Basic HTML Codes

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  29. The mere fact that Obama even has to deal with Iran goes directly back to Carter's incompetence. And the problems in Iraq and Afghanistan could be considered spin-offs from the fall of the Shah and the power vacuum that left in the region.

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  30. Origin of Specious said...
    IMHO it would be hard to knock Dhimmi Carter out of first.


    I dunno -- Buchanan probably could have stopped the outbreak of the civil war and didn't. That's a pretty bad thing to have on your record.

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  31. True and recent story. My mom passed away 4 years ago. She was a jewelry nut - jewelry channel and QVC practically 24/7. She bought a lot of stuff, none of it was expensive - one, it was cheap jewelry but two, gold was cheapcheapcheap. I've had it all sitting in boxes on the floor of my closet. About a month ago, I took it to a jeweler to "cash in" the gold. I was expecting maybe $1500. Walked out of there with a check for $5500. And I still have more of her stuff!

    Gold can continue to skyrocket from my selfish point of view.

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  32. Actually, I'm formulating a plan to vastly increase the value of my gold holdings. It involves an all-female aerobatics team, a commando unit of the People's Liberation Army, a very dirty atomic bomb, and Fort Knox. More than that, I'm not at liberty to discuss.

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  33. OR's reference to the Dalrymple article is spot on. It is well worth the time to bookmark the link and read the article some time when you can really concentrate on what Dalrymple is saying.

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  34. <a href="http://www.detnews.com/article/20091007/METRO01/910070396/1409/Thousands-of-Detroit-residents-seek-federal-help-at-Cobo">Near riots in Cobo Hall Detroit as people wait for their 'free' Obama money.</a>

    Near riots in Cobo Hall Detroit as people wait for their 'free' Obama money.

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  35. tfc3rid said...

    BTW< heard Nancy Pelosi sending the SBO a health plan with public option and a windfall profits tax in Insurance Companies.

    PiGuy reminded me of a Margaret Thatcher quote the other day:

    "The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money." Margaret Thatcher

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  36. More than that, I'm not at liberty to discuss.

    Do you expect me to talk?

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  37. Does this free Obama money have his portrait on it?

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  38. OR

    Hey -- you never told me Chicago'd be in on this!

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  39. No, Mr. Kirk! I expect you to BLOG!

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  40. Do you expect me to talk?

    No, we expect you to die......

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  41. VioletTiger...

    Wow... My $20 has the One riding on a unicorn!

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  42. There are a lot of problem with being a police detective, but one of the greatest perks is that the career is virtually recession-proof.

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  43. JT Kirk,

    I'll bet everyone of them voted for Obama. What a disaster!

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  44. Wyatt Earp said...
    There are a lot of problem with being a police detective, but one of the greatest perks is that the career is virtually recession-proof.


    There you go again, Wyatt, taunting us about your extra Soylent Green allocation...

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  45. O.R. - It's only a small allocation, though!

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  46. Son of the Black Dog said...

    OR's reference to the Dalrymple article is spot on. It is well worth the time to bookmark the link and read the article some time when you can really concentrate on what Dalrymple is saying.

    Anything by Dalrymple is well worth your time. His book "Life at the Bottom" is an incredible eye-opener.

    And speaking of books, Amazon has dropped the price of the Kindle to $259. Why wasn't I informed?

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  47. OR,

    Theodore Dalrymple's day job was as a psychiatrist in a UK prison, so he knows what he's talking about when he describes dysfunctional personalities. Life in Obamaland: where hard work & talent are penalized, but political connections, entitlements and grievance peddling are the key to survival.

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  48. tfc3rid,
    Your real money will be worth about the same as that one pretty soon.

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  49. Russkilitlover,
    My sister has been a home shopping addict for years. Can't imagine what her collection is worth now. She has some nice stuff. Never could get very interested myself.

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  50. At the end of the Detroit article there is a quote from the president of the firefighters' union, "This absolutely is representative of the struggling middle class in America". I have serious doubts that any of there people were ever middle class. Middle class is more than an inflated wage for bolting fenders onto Chevys, it also includes a set of values that these people obviously never had. Which is unfortunate.

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  51. I remember the talk about how if we didn't pass the Porkulus, the economy would be a disaster. How'd that work out for ya, Barack?

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  52. And speaking of books, Amazon has dropped the price of the Kindle to $259. Why wasn't I informed?

    Maybe because paper books are still better? No DRM, region codes, expiration dates, or remote edit/delete capability?

    ReplyDelete
  53. JamesTKirk said...

    That article is among the saddest I've ever read. The quotes from the residents remind me of the mindset I used to see in stories from behind the Iron Curtain.
    I'm afraid that the number of millions of Americans who have absolutely no clue how to make a life for themselves (without taking from others) is hitting critical mass. I don't see any way out of this mess.

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  54. Pentagon buys 4 "I wouldn't build that if I were you" bombs.

    Nice headline.

    "The notification says simply, "The Department has an Urgent Operational Need (UON) for the capability to strike hard and deeply buried targets in high threat environments. The MOP is the weapon of choice to meet the requirements of the UON." It further states that the request is endorsed by Pacific Command (which has responsibility over North Korea) and Central Command (which has responsibility over Iran)."

    Sometimes it is good to telegraph your punch.

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  55. oops... linky: http://www.blackfive.net/main/2009/10/pentagon-buys-4-i-wouldnt-build-that-if-i-were-you-bombs.html

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  56. I remember the talk about how if we didn't pass the Porkulus, the economy would be a disaster. How'd that work out for ya, Barack?

    Once the Porkulus passed, Obama officially took ownership of the economy. He can try to blame Bush for the next four years, with media complicity, but those excuses (like his voters) just don't wash.

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  57. Lincolntf said...
    "I'm afraid that the number of millions of Americans who have absolutely no clue how to make a life for themselves (without taking from others) is hitting critical mass. I don't see any way out of this mess."

    I had the same reaction. Very sad article. No doubt these people are in need but the ages - 25, 27, 32. Your comment is spot on - they don't know how to make a life for themselves.

    We are so screwed.

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  58. If you think about it, the entire Obama presidency is Bush's fault. It only because Bush was so hated that an unqualified, inexperienced empty suit like Obama could have even hoped to get elected in the first place.

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  59. Lincolntf, we are living Atlas Shrugged.
    Where is our John Galt?

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  60. JCM - And you as well!

    JamesTKirk - Let's hope so. They will continue to try, which annoys the crap out of me.

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  61. To much depression, time for a Happy Dance!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XjhvWf7OeEE&feature=related

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  62. Serious question - some of our college savings for our daughter have come back up a bit. Should we cash out now or stay greedy and wait a while?

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  63. Inflation is the mind killer.

    *Obscure Obanomics/Dune cross reference.

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  64. Serious question - some of our college savings for our daughter have come back up a bit. Should we cash out now or stay greedy and wait a while?

    It depends on how soon you're going to need the money. If you need it within four or five years, put it into something very safe, like CD's. If you've got ten years or more, stick to good quality common stocks, or reputable low cost mutual funds that invest in common stocks. Between those time frames you'll want a mix.

    /usual disclaimer applies, your mileage may vary

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  65. Later folks. Must get my eyes checked--i think I need glasses. Yikes.

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  66. Thanks SOABD. Big decision coming, I guess.

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  67. doppelganglander said...
    The Ruins of Detroit

    Awesome link. Thanks.

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  68. experiencedtraveller said...

    Inflation is the mind killer.

    *Obscure Obanomics/Dune cross reference.


    The Gobama Jabar

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  69. Doppel -- wow. Those are powerful images.

    It's been more than 20 years since I was last in Detroit -- it was bad then, I can't imagine how grim it is now. I get the impression that it is the closest thing in modern America to what Rome must have been like around 700 AD.

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  70. JCM said...
    The Gobama Jabar

    Don't flinch!

    Hey, when is Boeing gonna get that big bird up?!?!?

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  71. JCM said...

    Amazing. More violence and disruptions at the Obama-bucks giveaway than at any Tea Party/Town Hall I saw.

    People are getting "wee-wee'd up" again, Barry. Who you gonna blame this time?

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  72. experiencedtraveller and Lucius: You're very welcome. My daughter found that one. I think the comparison to Rome after the fall is very apt.

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  73. So should I be IN the market as an inflation hedge or OUT of the market because it's going to do a major correction?

    GAH!

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  74. Q"Why are you here?"
    A"To get some money."
    Q"What kind of money?"
    A"Obama money."
    Q"Where did he get it?"
    A"I don't know, it's from his stash. That's why we voted for him. We love him..Omama! Obama!"

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  75. experiencedtraveller said...

    Hey, when is Boeing gonna get that big bird up?!?!?


    Their still figuring out the 787 fix and haven't announced the new schedule.

    The 747-8 took a $1 Billion hit for delays.

    Looks like SC is gonna get a 787 assembly line.

    With the Gov. announcing no more tax breaks Boeing's days in WA are numbered.

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  76. Hey Kenneth, a drive-by but I think you'll appreciate this: Obama-Biden Massive Ordnance Penetrator(MOP) Czar gives tips for Halloween.

    Afternoon everyone.

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  77. JCM said...

    Video to go with that report out of Detroit.

    Damn. No sound at work.
    Have to remember to watch that tonight.

    And this nice graph for ya:

    BOOM

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  78. The Ruins of Detroit

    A lot more of America could look like that if the left wing of the Democrat party runs this country for too long. The people running Detroit are pretty much cast in the mold of Obama.

    And I'm talking about policy not race.

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  79. sas,

    I wonder, (hope hope) if they've got a tactical nuke to go in the MOP.

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  80. holy shit enuff! What an idiot, it's amazing the guy lived to be as old as he is.

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  81. Russkilitlover said...


    I had the same reaction. Very sad article. No doubt these people are in need but the ages - 25, 27, 32. Your comment is spot on - they don't know how to make a life for themselves.

    We are so screwed.


    They live in a city that has been completely destroyed by democratic policies and they can't seem to understand that the people they voted for put them in that position.

    I'd say the vast majority are employable but there is no vehicle for job creation in their city and they either can't or won't move to regions that haven't buckled under the union/nanny state mentality.

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  82. Amazing. More violence and disruptions at the Obama-bucks giveaway than at any Tea Party/Town Hall I saw.

    No, no, no, no. The gun toting Paulian Republicans are a far greater threat to stability and order than the Lumpenproletariat.

    Keep saying that over and over again and eventually you will decide that Obamacare and Global Warming and the rest of the socialism-by-the-drink package is preferable to the Republican alternative.

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  83. I wonder, (hope hope) if they've got a tactical nuke to go in the MOP.

    Might need it. Some of those installations are sure to be in the mountainous regions. Much easier to harden, unlike in Iraq.

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  84. No, no, no, no. The gun toting Paulian Republicans are a far greater threat to stability and order than the Lumpenproletariat.

    KT, is that you?
    /

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  85. So should I be IN the market as an inflation hedge or OUT of the market because it's going to do a major correction?

    All depends on your time horizon. If you're talking about retirement money, and you're going to work 20 more years, then common stocks are your best hedge against inflation. (Without getting into exotic, and expensive, investments.) Any other investments: bonds, CD's, money market, etc., are not going to maintain your purchasing power.

    /that's kind of a simplistic answer, but you get the point
    /disclaimer applies

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  86. SoBD

    Can't talk about Democrat misrule and Detroit without talking about race. It's a law!

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  87. IIRC, Democrats in Congress killed the R&D funding for a deep penetrating nuke.

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  88. doppel, I liked the dentist office pic the most. Why? I have no clue - it was interesting I guess. Left the impression of a ghost town in my mind.

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  89. enuff, sent the link to my boys. I had headphones on and I jerked in my chair when that went off. You know the guy actually thought it would sparkle, suprised he didn't get knowcked out.

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  90. Lucius Septimius said...
    No, no, no, no. The gun toting Paulian Republicans are a far greater threat to stability and order than the Lumpenproletariat.


    You forgot to add creationists. ;-)

    To be clear, I classify creationism/ID as being about as "scientific" as AGW but seriously, it is not a threat to the economy and general prosperity of this country. It's not worth obsessing over.

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  91. I'm scanning though a couple articles and I did a Google search but I can't find a copy of the actual "application" that has caused the Obamite uprising in Detroit. I assume it's staring me in the face on one of these pages, but I can't find it. Anyone know where I can get a peek?
    I'm curious as to how this program is "supposed" to work. Particularly verification/eligiblity standards.
    The whole thing reeks of Acorn-style incompetence and corruption.

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  92. I don't care if my local politicians worship an Olmec fertility goddess as long as they defend individual liberty and control spending.

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  93. turn said...

    doppel, I liked the dentist office pic the most. Why? I have no clue - it was interesting I guess. Left the impression of a ghost town in my mind.

    That was one of my favorites, too. I could almost see the ghosts of the dentists and the patients they served.

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  94. experiencedtraveller said...

    I don't care if my local politicians worship an Olmec fertility goddess as long as they defend individual liberty and control spending.


    Amen.

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  95. enuff,

    ROFLMAO! What a fool.

    "A little too much magnesium, I guess."

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  96. experiencedtraveller said...

    I don't care if my local politicians worship an Olmec fertility goddess as long as they defend individual liberty and control spending.
    ____________________________________________________________________
    Does the Olmec fertility goddess look like Adriana Lima? I might consider worshiping her //

    ReplyDelete
  97. Reposted from upstairs, since it's more appropriate here:

    From Politico.com: "Who launched this week's sneak attack on the U.S. dollar?", starring the execrable Robert Fisk:

    http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20091008/pl_politico/28091

    ReplyDelete

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